THE CLIENTELE OF the Le Amor retirement home in the Fragrant Hills of western Beijing are noordinary folk. Staff boast that one of them taught President Hu Jintao when he was atuniversity. Another is the descendant of a nutritionist who worked for the Empress DowagerCixi, Chinas last great imperial ruler. A third is a former senior official in the partys top anti-corruption body. By the grim standards of such homes in China, it seems they are beingtreated well. If they wish, they can rent a suite of rooms, including one for a live-in servant. Allrooms have an emergency button.

　　住在北京西郊香山Le Amor退休公寓里的住戶都不是平民百姓。那里的員工自夸退休公寓里的其中一位住戶曾經是胡錦濤在大學里的老師。還有一個住戶是以前為中國最后一個重量級的帝國統治者慈禧太后掌廚的御廚的后代。另外，三分之一的共產黨最高紀委機構的前高級官員們。從中國的此類住宅的嚴格規格來看，這些退休干部似乎養尊處優。如果他們想要的話，他們可以租上一套房間，包括一間讓寄宿保姆住下的房間。所有房間中都有一個緊急按鈕。

　　The homes director is coy about how she secured such a desirable rural location for her$10m venture, +away from the citys downtown smog. Le Amor is one of only a handful ofprivately run retirement homes in the capital aimed at the well-to-do. Looking after the elderly isa business in its infancy in China, where that task usually falls to the offspring, if any. But LeAmors market has very attractive prospects.

　　Le Amor退休公寓的總裁透露了她為什么要在這個遠離城市喧囂脹氣的宜人鄉間建立她耗資1000萬美元的養老公司。在北京僅有的少數針對富人建立的私營養老院中，Le Amor是其中之一。在養老重擔全由子女承擔的中國，如果有養老業這個行業的話，它也只是剛剛起步。然而，Le Amor的市場擁有十分誘人的前景。

　　Over the next few years China will undergo a hugedemographic shift. The share of people over 60 inthe total population will increase from 12.5% in2010 to 20% in 2023. By 2030 their number willdouble from todays 178m. The dependency ratiothe number of people of non-working age, bothyoung and old, as a proportion of those of workingagewill bottom out between 2023 and 2023 at anexceptionally low level before rebounding, says areport by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Put another way, Chinas demographicdividendthe availability of lots of young workerswhich helped fuel its growth will soonbegin to disappear. The overall population will start to grow faster than that of working age.One trigger for this could be a sharp economic slowdown. Many Chinese have recently becomefamiliar with the Lewis turning point, named after a 20th-century economist from St Lucia,Arthur Lewis, who said that industrial wages start to rise quickly when a countrys rural laboursurplus dries up.

　　在未來的幾年中，中國將會經歷一次巨大的人口轉變。預計，六十歲以上的人口占總人口的比例將會從2010年的12.5%上升到2023年的20%。到了2030年，中國六十歲以上的人口數量將會是現在178萬的兩倍之多。中國社會科學院的一份報告指出，中國的撫養率衡量包括年輕人和老年人的非勞動年齡人口和勞動年齡人口的比值將會在2023年至2023年之間降到一個極低的水平，直到反彈。另一種說法是，中國的人口紅利大量年輕勞動力的供給曾經刺激了中國經濟的增長，它馬上就要開始消失了。中國的總人口數量將開始比勞動年齡人口數量增加的更快。這一旦觸發就可能產生一次經濟急劇放緩。現在，許多中國人已經對劉易斯拐點十分熟悉了，劉易斯拐點是以一位二十世紀來自圣盧西亞的經濟學家Arthur Lewis的名字來命名的，他曾指出當一個國家的農村勞動剩余消失時，該國的工業工資將開始快速上漲。

　　One way this will show up is in a proliferation of places like Le Amor. A lot of schools will closedown. Wang Feng of the Brookings Institution notes that Chinas primary-school enrolmentdropped from 25.3m in 1995 to 16.7m in 2008. Revoking the one-child policy would probablynot make a big difference. Chinese couples have small families mainly because children areexpensive, Mr Wang argues. Chinas rapid ageing, combined with a shrinking labour force, willfundamentally reshape the Chinese economy and society, he suggests. In the next decadethe number of people aged 20-24 will drop by 50%, Mr Wang predicts.

　　非勞動年齡人口的增長會以像Le Amor.這樣的養老院擴張的形式出現。許多學校將會停學。Brookings研究所的王峰指出，中國的中學錄取人數從1995年的2530萬降到了 2008年的1670萬。取消獨生子女政策可能也不會使這產生較大的改觀。王峰指出，中國夫婦選擇三口之家是因為撫養孩子的成本高昂。同時，他還指出，中國迅速的老齡化，隨同勞動力萎縮會徹底的重塑中國的經濟和社會。王峰預計，在未來的幾十年中，中國20至24歲人口的數量將會下降到50%。

　　Optimists believe China still has several more years before the economic impact of an ageingpopulation becomes apparent. Chinas commerce minister, Chen Deming, said in March 2010that the country could still enjoy another decade of demographic dividends. In a report lastyear Morgan Stanley pointed to 80m-100m surplus labourers in the countryside who could beemployed in urban areas .It also expressed optimism about continuing productivity gains from rising levels ofeducation and technology use.

　　樂觀者們相信，中國還要度過好幾年老齡人口對經濟的沖擊才會變得明顯。中國商務部部長，陳德銘指出，2010年三月，中國仍然能夠享受另外一個十年的人口紅利。摩根史坦利投資公司在去年的一份報告表明，在中國農村，能夠去城市里打工的剩余勞動力還有8000萬到1億人。這還顯示出人們對于因為教育水平的提高和技術的使用而引起的生產率的持續增長的樂觀。

　　THE CLIENTELE OF the Le Amor retirement home in the Fragrant Hills of western Beijing are noordinary folk. Staff boast that one of them taught President Hu Jintao when he was atuniversity. Another is the descendant of a nutritionist who worked for the Empress DowagerCixi, Chinas last great imperial ruler. A third is a former senior official in the partys top anti-corruption body. By the grim standards of such homes in China, it seems they are beingtreated well. If they wish, they can rent a suite of rooms, including one for a live-in servant. Allrooms have an emergency button.

　　住在北京西郊香山Le Amor退休公寓里的住戶都不是平民百姓。那里的員工自夸退休公寓里的其中一位住戶曾經是胡錦濤在大學里的老師。還有一個住戶是以前為中國最后一個重量級的帝國統治者慈禧太后掌廚的御廚的后代。另外，三分之一的共產黨最高紀委機構的前高級官員們。從中國的此類住宅的嚴格規格來看，這些退休干部似乎養尊處優。如果他們想要的話，他們可以租上一套房間，包括一間讓寄宿保姆住下的房間。所有房間中都有一個緊急按鈕。

　　The homes director is coy about how she secured such a desirable rural location for her$10m venture, +away from the citys downtown smog. Le Amor is one of only a handful ofprivately run retirement homes in the capital aimed at the well-to-do. Looking after the elderly isa business in its infancy in China, where that task usually falls to the offspring, if any. But LeAmors market has very attractive prospects.

　　Le Amor退休公寓的總裁透露了她為什么要在這個遠離城市喧囂脹氣的宜人鄉間建立她耗資1000萬美元的養老公司。在北京僅有的少數針對富人建立的私營養老院中，Le Amor是其中之一。在養老重擔全由子女承擔的中國，如果有養老業這個行業的話，它也只是剛剛起步。然而，Le Amor的市場擁有十分誘人的前景。

　　Over the next few years China will undergo a hugedemographic shift. The share of people over 60 inthe total population will increase from 12.5% in2010 to 20% in 2023. By 2030 their number willdouble from todays 178m. The dependency ratiothe number of people of non-working age, bothyoung and old, as a proportion of those of workingagewill bottom out between 2023 and 2023 at anexceptionally low level before rebounding, says areport by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Put another way, Chinas demographicdividendthe availability of lots of young workerswhich helped fuel its growth will soonbegin to disappear. The overall population will start to grow faster than that of working age.One trigger for this could be a sharp economic slowdown. Many Chinese have recently becomefamiliar with the Lewis turning point, named after a 20th-century economist from St Lucia,Arthur Lewis, who said that industrial wages start to rise quickly when a countrys rural laboursurplus dries up.

　　在未來的幾年中，中國將會經歷一次巨大的人口轉變。預計，六十歲以上的人口占總人口的比例將會從2010年的12.5%上升到2023年的20%。到了2030年，中國六十歲以上的人口數量將會是現在178萬的兩倍之多。中國社會科學院的一份報告指出，中國的撫養率衡量包括年輕人和老年人的非勞動年齡人口和勞動年齡人口的比值將會在2023年至2023年之間降到一個極低的水平，直到反彈。另一種說法是，中國的人口紅利大量年輕勞動力的供給曾經刺激了中國經濟的增長，它馬上就要開始消失了。中國的總人口數量將開始比勞動年齡人口數量增加的更快。這一旦觸發就可能產生一次經濟急劇放緩。現在，許多中國人已經對劉易斯拐點十分熟悉了，劉易斯拐點是以一位二十世紀來自圣盧西亞的經濟學家Arthur Lewis的名字來命名的，他曾指出當一個國家的農村勞動剩余消失時，該國的工業工資將開始快速上漲。

　　One way this will show up is in a proliferation of places like Le Amor. A lot of schools will closedown. Wang Feng of the Brookings Institution notes that Chinas primary-school enrolmentdropped from 25.3m in 1995 to 16.7m in 2008. Revoking the one-child policy would probablynot make a big difference. Chinese couples have small families mainly because children areexpensive, Mr Wang argues. Chinas rapid ageing, combined with a shrinking labour force, willfundamentally reshape the Chinese economy and society, he suggests. In the next decadethe number of people aged 20-24 will drop by 50%, Mr Wang predicts.

　　非勞動年齡人口的增長會以像Le Amor.這樣的養老院擴張的形式出現。許多學校將會停學。Brookings研究所的王峰指出，中國的中學錄取人數從1995年的2530萬降到了 2008年的1670萬。取消獨生子女政策可能也不會使這產生較大的改觀。王峰指出，中國夫婦選擇三口之家是因為撫養孩子的成本高昂。同時，他還指出，中國迅速的老齡化，隨同勞動力萎縮會徹底的重塑中國的經濟和社會。王峰預計，在未來的幾十年中，中國20至24歲人口的數量將會下降到50%。

　　Optimists believe China still has several more years before the economic impact of an ageingpopulation becomes apparent. Chinas commerce minister, Chen Deming, said in March 2010that the country could still enjoy another decade of demographic dividends. In a report lastyear Morgan Stanley pointed to 80m-100m surplus labourers in the countryside who could beemployed in urban areas .It also expressed optimism about continuing productivity gains from rising levels ofeducation and technology use.

　　樂觀者們相信，中國還要度過好幾年老齡人口對經濟的沖擊才會變得明顯。中國商務部部長，陳德銘指出，2010年三月，中國仍然能夠享受另外一個十年的人口紅利。摩根史坦利投資公司在去年的一份報告表明，在中國農村，能夠去城市里打工的剩余勞動力還有8000萬到1億人。這還顯示出人們對于因為教育水平的提高和技術的使用而引起的生產率的持續增長的樂觀。