Hunger in North Korea

　　朝鮮的饑荒

　　Let them eat maize husks

　　讓他們吃玉米皮

　　The politics of hunger in a brutal place

　　野蠻之地的饑荒政治

　　IT IS the time of year when the previous harvesthas been nearly eaten and the next one has justbeen planted. Time, in other words, to worry aboutNorth Koreas perennially hungry masses.

　　現在是那種青黃不接的時候。換句話說，是為朝鮮長期存在的吃不上飯的平民感到焦慮的時候了。

　　North Korea had long grown dependent on food handouts from its estranged brother, SouthKorea, and from the United States. But the Souths current president, Lee Myung-bak, hastaken a tougher line, tying assistance to less provocative behaviour by Kim Jong Ils nuclear-tipped regime. So Mr Kims envoys have travelled further afield of late, reportedly doing therounds of Europe.

　　長期以來，朝鮮依賴失和的兄弟韓國和美國的救濟。但是，韓國現任總統李明博采取了強硬路線，要想得到救助，金正日親核政權就必須變得更加溫和。所以，最近金正日的特使不遠萬里，據報道現在歐洲進行活動。

　　The UNs World Food Programme is now preparing to distribute emergency aid to 3.5mNorth Koreans suffering from severe malnutrition. Programme officials are concerned aboutthe possibility of a famine on the scale of the one in the mid-1990s, in which over 1m died.They blame a series of shocks, including the coldest winter in years, widespread flooding andan outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease among livestock. Some 297,000 tonnes of cereal and137,000 tonnes of fortified blended food must reach the most vulnerable.

　　聯合國世界糧食計劃署正準備對350萬經受嚴重營養不良的朝鮮人發放緊急救援。計劃署官員們擔心上世紀90年代中期導致100多萬人死亡的饑荒可能再次發生。他們認為一系列的沖擊包括數年嚴冬、肆虐的洪水、牲畜的口蹄疫爆發是導致饑荒的主要原因。約297000噸谷物以及137000噸加強的混合食品必須送達那些最脆弱的人們。

　　With murky data, and diplomats and foreign-aid staff restricted in where they may travel, not everyone agrees with the WFPs assessment. Certainly, estimating North Koreas food needs has long been a politicised business. A member of South Koreas ruling Grand National Party, Yoon Sang-hyun, says that the North is hoarding 1m tonnes of rice, playing up a shortfall in order to get aid on the cheap. Some say Mr Kim wants the aid in order to announce a bumper harvest in 2023. That year is the 100th anniversary of North Koreas founder, Mr Kims father, Kim Il Sung. Something approaching paradise has long been promised to North Koreans for 2023.

　　考慮到數據模糊不清，加之對外交官和外國援助人員可能訪問之地加以限制，并非每個人都與世界糧食計劃署的評估意見一致。當然，長期以來，評估朝鮮的糧食需求一直是帶有嚴肅政治性的事情。韓國執政的大國家黨成員尹尚鉉稱，朝鮮囤積有100萬噸大米，夸大短缺是為了廉價獲取援助。一些人則認為，金正日需要這些援助，為的是好在2023年宣布豐收。2023年是朝鮮建立者金正日父親金日成100周年誕辰。朝鮮一直承諾在2023年會出現一種接近天堂般的生活。

　　The Souths unification minister, Hyun In-taek, also suspects North Korea of exaggerating its troubles for political gain. Certainly, he says, starvation has begun to overshadow other topics that the South would rather discuss, namely denuclearisation and the Norths refusal to apologise for last years shelling of Yeonpyeong island and the presumed sinking in March 2010 of a naval corvette. This is apparently a view shared by Daily NK, an activist network and news source which says that the price of rice in the black market has actually fallen by around half in recent months.

　　韓國統一部部長玄在澤也懷疑朝鮮夸大困難為的是尋求政治利益。他說，毫無疑問，饑荒問題使韓國可能會討論的其它議題黯然失色，這些議題即朝鮮的無核化以及朝鮮拒絕為去年向延坪島發射炮彈及2010年3月韓國海軍護衛艦沉沒一事道歉等。顯然這也是與Daily NK共有的一個觀點。Daily NK是一個激進分子網絡，是大米在黑市的價格在近幾月實際下降了一半左右的資訊來源。

　　Others, such as Good Friends, a South Korean Buddhist charity long working in the North, insist the situation is very badand that tuberculosis is on the rise owing to malnutrition. Rimjingang, a magazine with reporters secretly stationed in North Korea, says that in North Pyongan province by the Chinese border even the army is going hungry.

　　其它如長期在朝鮮工作的佛教慈善團體好朋友則認為，情況相當糟糕，并且由于營養不良，肺結核感染正在增加。有記者秘密駐扎在朝鮮的雜志《Rimjingang》稱，在與中國交接的平安省，甚至軍隊也發生饑荒。

　　Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, both at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, say that even though the WFP has overstated the case, all indicators point to a deteriorating food-security situation. What is more, they take issue with Mr Lees belief that withholding aid will temper the Norths behaviour. Rather, they argue, the response will merely be for the hermit kingdom to hunker down and tighten repression. The regime has been consistent chiefly in showing complete disregard for its people.

　　華盛頓彼得森國際經濟研究所的斯蒂芬哈格德和馬庫斯諾蘭稱，即便世界糧食組織高估了情況，所有跡象表明一種糧食安全情況正在惡化。此外，他們反對李明博扣留援助將軟化朝鮮行為的觀點。他們甚至認為，神秘王國的反應不過是頑固堅持、加強鎮壓。朝鮮政權大體上一直漠視它的人民。

　　But arguing is pointless. Widespread malnutrition and starvation in at least some parts of the country is a reality in North Korea. For Jimmy Carter, the former American president, who visited Pyongyang recently, the fault lies mainly with South Korea and the United States. That is presumably tonic to the real culprit for the hunger, the chubby Dear Leader, Kim Jong Il.

　　但是，爭論毫無意義。至少在朝鮮部分地區存在普遍的營養不良和饑荒，這是現實。最近訪問過平壤的美國前總統吉米卡特認為，錯誤在韓國和美國一邊。這一消息對饑荒背后真正的罪犯圓胖的親愛領袖金正日而言，大概是一劑補藥。

　　Hunger in North Korea

　　朝鮮的饑荒

　　Let them eat maize husks

　　讓他們吃玉米皮

　　The politics of hunger in a brutal place

　　野蠻之地的饑荒政治

　　IT IS the time of year when the previous harvesthas been nearly eaten and the next one has justbeen planted. Time, in other words, to worry aboutNorth Koreas perennially hungry masses.

　　現在是那種青黃不接的時候。換句話說，是為朝鮮長期存在的吃不上飯的平民感到焦慮的時候了。

　　North Korea had long grown dependent on food handouts from its estranged brother, SouthKorea, and from the United States. But the Souths current president, Lee Myung-bak, hastaken a tougher line, tying assistance to less provocative behaviour by Kim Jong Ils nuclear-tipped regime. So Mr Kims envoys have travelled further afield of late, reportedly doing therounds of Europe.

　　長期以來，朝鮮依賴失和的兄弟韓國和美國的救濟。但是，韓國現任總統李明博采取了強硬路線，要想得到救助，金正日親核政權就必須變得更加溫和。所以，最近金正日的特使不遠萬里，據報道現在歐洲進行活動。

　　The UNs World Food Programme is now preparing to distribute emergency aid to 3.5mNorth Koreans suffering from severe malnutrition. Programme officials are concerned aboutthe possibility of a famine on the scale of the one in the mid-1990s, in which over 1m died.They blame a series of shocks, including the coldest winter in years, widespread flooding andan outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease among livestock. Some 297,000 tonnes of cereal and137,000 tonnes of fortified blended food must reach the most vulnerable.

　　聯合國世界糧食計劃署正準備對350萬經受嚴重營養不良的朝鮮人發放緊急救援。計劃署官員們擔心上世紀90年代中期導致100多萬人死亡的饑荒可能再次發生。他們認為一系列的沖擊包括數年嚴冬、肆虐的洪水、牲畜的口蹄疫爆發是導致饑荒的主要原因。約297000噸谷物以及137000噸加強的混合食品必須送達那些最脆弱的人們。

　　With murky data, and diplomats and foreign-aid staff restricted in where they may travel, not everyone agrees with the WFPs assessment. Certainly, estimating North Koreas food needs has long been a politicised business. A member of South Koreas ruling Grand National Party, Yoon Sang-hyun, says that the North is hoarding 1m tonnes of rice, playing up a shortfall in order to get aid on the cheap. Some say Mr Kim wants the aid in order to announce a bumper harvest in 2023. That year is the 100th anniversary of North Koreas founder, Mr Kims father, Kim Il Sung. Something approaching paradise has long been promised to North Koreans for 2023.

　　考慮到數據模糊不清，加之對外交官和外國援助人員可能訪問之地加以限制，并非每個人都與世界糧食計劃署的評估意見一致。當然，長期以來，評估朝鮮的糧食需求一直是帶有嚴肅政治性的事情。韓國執政的大國家黨成員尹尚鉉稱，朝鮮囤積有100萬噸大米，夸大短缺是為了廉價獲取援助。一些人則認為，金正日需要這些援助，為的是好在2023年宣布豐收。2023年是朝鮮建立者金正日父親金日成100周年誕辰。朝鮮一直承諾在2023年會出現一種接近天堂般的生活。

　　The Souths unification minister, Hyun In-taek, also suspects North Korea of exaggerating its troubles for political gain. Certainly, he says, starvation has begun to overshadow other topics that the South would rather discuss, namely denuclearisation and the Norths refusal to apologise for last years shelling of Yeonpyeong island and the presumed sinking in March 2010 of a naval corvette. This is apparently a view shared by Daily NK, an activist network and news source which says that the price of rice in the black market has actually fallen by around half in recent months.

　　韓國統一部部長玄在澤也懷疑朝鮮夸大困難為的是尋求政治利益。他說，毫無疑問，饑荒問題使韓國可能會討論的其它議題黯然失色，這些議題即朝鮮的無核化以及朝鮮拒絕為去年向延坪島發射炮彈及2010年3月韓國海軍護衛艦沉沒一事道歉等。顯然這也是與Daily NK共有的一個觀點。Daily NK是一個激進分子網絡，是大米在黑市的價格在近幾月實際下降了一半左右的資訊來源。

　　Others, such as Good Friends, a South Korean Buddhist charity long working in the North, insist the situation is very badand that tuberculosis is on the rise owing to malnutrition. Rimjingang, a magazine with reporters secretly stationed in North Korea, says that in North Pyongan province by the Chinese border even the army is going hungry.

　　其它如長期在朝鮮工作的佛教慈善團體好朋友則認為，情況相當糟糕，并且由于營養不良，肺結核感染正在增加。有記者秘密駐扎在朝鮮的雜志《Rimjingang》稱，在與中國交接的平安省，甚至軍隊也發生饑荒。

　　Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, both at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, say that even though the WFP has overstated the case, all indicators point to a deteriorating food-security situation. What is more, they take issue with Mr Lees belief that withholding aid will temper the Norths behaviour. Rather, they argue, the response will merely be for the hermit kingdom to hunker down and tighten repression. The regime has been consistent chiefly in showing complete disregard for its people.

　　華盛頓彼得森國際經濟研究所的斯蒂芬哈格德和馬庫斯諾蘭稱，即便世界糧食組織高估了情況，所有跡象表明一種糧食安全情況正在惡化。此外，他們反對李明博扣留援助將軟化朝鮮行為的觀點。他們甚至認為，神秘王國的反應不過是頑固堅持、加強鎮壓。朝鮮政權大體上一直漠視它的人民。

　　But arguing is pointless. Widespread malnutrition and starvation in at least some parts of the country is a reality in North Korea. For Jimmy Carter, the former American president, who visited Pyongyang recently, the fault lies mainly with South Korea and the United States. That is presumably tonic to the real culprit for the hunger, the chubby Dear Leader, Kim Jong Il.

　　但是，爭論毫無意義。至少在朝鮮部分地區存在普遍的營養不良和饑荒，這是現實。最近訪問過平壤的美國前總統吉米卡特認為，錯誤在韓國和美國一邊。這一消息對饑荒背后真正的罪犯圓胖的親愛領袖金正日而言，大概是一劑補藥。