Chinese property

　　中國的房地產(chǎn)

　　BUBBLES are supposed to burst with an audiblepop. But in the snap and crackle of the Chinesehousing market, it is hard to hear anything clearly. On June 9th the Wall Street Journal put itsear to the ground and declared that the great property bubble of China may be popping. Itpointed out that prices had fallen by 4.9% in the year to April in nine big cities tracked byRosealea Yao of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy. Ms Yao herself thinks a correction inthe next six months is inevitable. But she argues that it is still a bit early to say the bubble isbursting.

　　泡沫爆破時本應(yīng)是有聲的。中國房地產(chǎn)市場雖是噼里啪啦地好不喧鬧，卻很難聽清個中詳況。6月9日，華爾街日報側(cè)耳傾聽了一番后發(fā)表說中國巨大的房產(chǎn)泡沫也許正在爆破。該報指出，今年截至4月九大城市的房產(chǎn)價格下降了4.9%，這是一家咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)GaveKal Dragonomics的Rosealea Yao所掌握到的信息。Ms Yao認(rèn)為在未來6個月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)市場必將迎來一段調(diào)整期。但她也認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在說泡沫會爆破還為時過早。

　　Official figures released on June 14th added more noise. They suggested that builders startedwork on 19% more residential floorspace in May, compared with a year earlier, and sold 18%more. But the sales figures were flattered by comparison with May 2010, an unusually slowmonth following a government clampdown on speculative homebuying a few weeks before. Andthe starts figures may have picked up the governments drive to build more affordablehousing.

　　6月14日發(fā)布的官方數(shù)據(jù)讓喧鬧之聲更起。這些數(shù)據(jù)表明，承建商在5月開始動工的住宅建筑比起一年前的多出19%，售出的也增加了18%。但銷售數(shù)據(jù)與2010年5月時比起來算是比較可喜的了，那個月正逢政府打壓房產(chǎn)買賣投資的幾個星期后，銷售形勢出奇地滯慢。而此段開頭的那個數(shù)字也許會讓中國政府重拾建造更多經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房的勁頭。

　　In other countries, such as America, economists canrely on clear signals from credible price indices. InChina the National Bureau of Statistics used topublish a price index spanning 70 cities. But thatmeasure muted both the highs and lows of Chinashousing market. It suggested that prices for newand existing homes never fell by more than 1.3%during the financial crisis, and never rose by morethan 12.8% a year in the boom that followed. Thatwas hard to square with the head-splitting priceshomebuyers were paying in the big cities. Peoplestopped paying attention to the national index. In December the government ceased publishingit.

　　在別的國家，比如在美國，可信的物價指數(shù)可以給出明確的信號，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可以借此加以分析。在中國，國家統(tǒng)計局過去通常發(fā)表的是包括70個城市在內(nèi)的物價指數(shù)。但那種方法并無法說明中國房地產(chǎn)市場的起起落落。它只是表明，即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時期新建和現(xiàn)有住宅的銷售量在一年內(nèi)跌幅也從未超過1.3%，且在隨之而來的繁榮期里其漲幅也從未超過12.8%。那可和大城市里購房者面臨的令人頭疼的房價是不相符的。人們已不再關(guān)注國家發(fā)布的指數(shù)。在12月政府也不再發(fā)布此指數(shù)。

　　The bureau does, however, still track prices in the 70 individual cities that made up the index.Weighting the cities by population, and weighting the mix of new and existing properties byfloorspace, The Economist has tried to rebuild Chinas abandoned house-price index from its constituent parts. Our calculations suggest nationwide prices are still risingby 4% inthe year to Aprilbut only slowly. The pace of increase has eased steadily for 12 months in arow.

　　然而，統(tǒng)計局仍然關(guān)注著構(gòu)成這個指數(shù)的70個城市的房價。按人口來定這個城市的權(quán)重，還按建筑面積來定新建和現(xiàn)有房產(chǎn)的權(quán)重，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人試圖通過這種方法來重新得出已被棄用的房價指數(shù)。我們的估算表明，全國的價格仍在上升，今年截至4月上漲了4%，但增長速度是比較慢的。增長的步伐在12個月里已趨于平緩。

　　In the absence of credible government figures, many analysts have turned to private-sectoralternatives. A 100-city index published by Soufun, a property consultancy, shows prices risingby 5.1% in the year to May. But in many of those cities its coverage is patchy, especially insmaller localities where developers may not have good, computerised records to share. That isone reason why Ms Yao, who draws on Soufuns figures, concentrates only on the nine cities itcovers best.

　　由于缺乏可信的官方數(shù)據(jù)，許多分析家轉(zhuǎn)而借助私營部門給出的數(shù)據(jù)。房產(chǎn)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)搜房發(fā)布了100個城市的房價指數(shù)，表明今年截至5月房價上漲了5.1%。但在那些城市中有許多的覆蓋范圍是不完全的，特別是在一些小地方，開發(fā)商也許仍未備有完善的電腦記錄。這就是為什么負(fù)責(zé)制作搜房的這個數(shù)據(jù)的Ms Yao只關(guān)注覆蓋范圍最完整的九個城市。

　　The first signs of a sharp reversal may not show upin prices anyway. The volume of sales tends to dropfirst, because optimistic developers will try to waitout a bad patch, hoping that better times will return.Despite the 18% rebound in May, most analystsbelieve sales are dropping sharply.

　　不管怎樣，一旦會有強(qiáng)烈反彈，房產(chǎn)價格也許反映不出第一手信號。剛開始銷售額往往會下降，因為樂觀的開發(fā)商會試圖死撐到控市政策不了了之，一心希望好景再返。盡管在5月出現(xiàn)了18%的反彈，許多分析家仍相信房產(chǎn)銷售量正在急劇下跌。

　　Developers can stay out of the market only for as long as they can stay out of the red. As theircash pile dwindles and liabilities fall due, they will be forced to sell, whatever the marketconditions. To give themselves more leeway, bigger developers have turned away from fickleonshore financing to international bond markets. The 30 developers rated by Standard Poors, a rating agency, raised about $8 billion of mostly five-year money in the first fivemonths of this year, compared with $8.8 billion in the whole of 2010, itself a record year.Developers can bring this money back into the country, despite Chinas capital controls,provided they show a bit of patience and a commitment to build things in unfancied cities.

　　只有能擺脫虧損，開發(fā)商才會愿意撤出市場。隨著現(xiàn)金減少，貸款到期，無論市場條件如何，他們也得被迫出售手中的房。為了給自己留有更大的余地，更有實力的開發(fā)商已從變數(shù)多端的境內(nèi)融資轉(zhuǎn)向國際債券市場。30家開發(fā)商由評級機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾給予評級，在今年的前5個月里便募集到了約80億美元的5年期資金，而在2010年里則募集到了88億美元。盡管中國對資本有控制，開發(fā)商也可以將這些資金帶回國，只要他們對在一些不起眼的城市里建房表現(xiàn)出一點耐心和誠意。

　　Even so, the debts of many smaller developers will fall due next year. Standard Poorsexpects property prices to fall by about 10% over the next 12 months, but it does not ruleout a price war if distressed selling by overstretched developers begins to feed on itself. IfChinas property market is a bubble, it may end with a squeal as well as a pop.

　　盡管如此，許多更小型開發(fā)商的債務(wù)將會在明年到期。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾預(yù)計在未來12月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)價格將會下跌10%，但如果資金已透支的開發(fā)商通過廉價出售房產(chǎn)可以填補(bǔ)得了這些債務(wù)，也不排除將會有一場價格戰(zhàn)。如果中國的房地產(chǎn)市場是個泡沫，最后很可能會噼里啪啦般爆破掉。

　　Chinese property

　　中國的房地產(chǎn)

　　BUBBLES are supposed to burst with an audiblepop. But in the snap and crackle of the Chinesehousing market, it is hard to hear anything clearly. On June 9th the Wall Street Journal put itsear to the ground and declared that the great property bubble of China may be popping. Itpointed out that prices had fallen by 4.9% in the year to April in nine big cities tracked byRosealea Yao of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy. Ms Yao herself thinks a correction inthe next six months is inevitable. But she argues that it is still a bit early to say the bubble isbursting.

　　泡沫爆破時本應(yīng)是有聲的。中國房地產(chǎn)市場雖是噼里啪啦地好不喧鬧，卻很難聽清個中詳況。6月9日，華爾街日報側(cè)耳傾聽了一番后發(fā)表說中國巨大的房產(chǎn)泡沫也許正在爆破。該報指出，今年截至4月九大城市的房產(chǎn)價格下降了4.9%，這是一家咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)GaveKal Dragonomics的Rosealea Yao所掌握到的信息。Ms Yao認(rèn)為在未來6個月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)市場必將迎來一段調(diào)整期。但她也認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在說泡沫會爆破還為時過早。

　　Official figures released on June 14th added more noise. They suggested that builders startedwork on 19% more residential floorspace in May, compared with a year earlier, and sold 18%more. But the sales figures were flattered by comparison with May 2010, an unusually slowmonth following a government clampdown on speculative homebuying a few weeks before. Andthe starts figures may have picked up the governments drive to build more affordablehousing.

　　6月14日發(fā)布的官方數(shù)據(jù)讓喧鬧之聲更起。這些數(shù)據(jù)表明，承建商在5月開始動工的住宅建筑比起一年前的多出19%，售出的也增加了18%。但銷售數(shù)據(jù)與2010年5月時比起來算是比較可喜的了，那個月正逢政府打壓房產(chǎn)買賣投資的幾個星期后，銷售形勢出奇地滯慢。而此段開頭的那個數(shù)字也許會讓中國政府重拾建造更多經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房的勁頭。

　　In other countries, such as America, economists canrely on clear signals from credible price indices. InChina the National Bureau of Statistics used topublish a price index spanning 70 cities. But thatmeasure muted both the highs and lows of Chinashousing market. It suggested that prices for newand existing homes never fell by more than 1.3%during the financial crisis, and never rose by morethan 12.8% a year in the boom that followed. Thatwas hard to square with the head-splitting priceshomebuyers were paying in the big cities. Peoplestopped paying attention to the national index. In December the government ceased publishingit.

　　在別的國家，比如在美國，可信的物價指數(shù)可以給出明確的信號，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可以借此加以分析。在中國，國家統(tǒng)計局過去通常發(fā)表的是包括70個城市在內(nèi)的物價指數(shù)。但那種方法并無法說明中國房地產(chǎn)市場的起起落落。它只是表明，即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時期新建和現(xiàn)有住宅的銷售量在一年內(nèi)跌幅也從未超過1.3%，且在隨之而來的繁榮期里其漲幅也從未超過12.8%。那可和大城市里購房者面臨的令人頭疼的房價是不相符的。人們已不再關(guān)注國家發(fā)布的指數(shù)。在12月政府也不再發(fā)布此指數(shù)。

　　The bureau does, however, still track prices in the 70 individual cities that made up the index.Weighting the cities by population, and weighting the mix of new and existing properties byfloorspace, The Economist has tried to rebuild Chinas abandoned house-price index from its constituent parts. Our calculations suggest nationwide prices are still risingby 4% inthe year to Aprilbut only slowly. The pace of increase has eased steadily for 12 months in arow.

　　然而，統(tǒng)計局仍然關(guān)注著構(gòu)成這個指數(shù)的70個城市的房價。按人口來定這個城市的權(quán)重，還按建筑面積來定新建和現(xiàn)有房產(chǎn)的權(quán)重，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人試圖通過這種方法來重新得出已被棄用的房價指數(shù)。我們的估算表明，全國的價格仍在上升，今年截至4月上漲了4%，但增長速度是比較慢的。增長的步伐在12個月里已趨于平緩。

　　In the absence of credible government figures, many analysts have turned to private-sectoralternatives. A 100-city index published by Soufun, a property consultancy, shows prices risingby 5.1% in the year to May. But in many of those cities its coverage is patchy, especially insmaller localities where developers may not have good, computerised records to share. That isone reason why Ms Yao, who draws on Soufuns figures, concentrates only on the nine cities itcovers best.

　　由于缺乏可信的官方數(shù)據(jù)，許多分析家轉(zhuǎn)而借助私營部門給出的數(shù)據(jù)。房產(chǎn)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)搜房發(fā)布了100個城市的房價指數(shù)，表明今年截至5月房價上漲了5.1%。但在那些城市中有許多的覆蓋范圍是不完全的，特別是在一些小地方，開發(fā)商也許仍未備有完善的電腦記錄。這就是為什么負(fù)責(zé)制作搜房的這個數(shù)據(jù)的Ms Yao只關(guān)注覆蓋范圍最完整的九個城市。

　　The first signs of a sharp reversal may not show upin prices anyway. The volume of sales tends to dropfirst, because optimistic developers will try to waitout a bad patch, hoping that better times will return.Despite the 18% rebound in May, most analystsbelieve sales are dropping sharply.

　　不管怎樣，一旦會有強(qiáng)烈反彈，房產(chǎn)價格也許反映不出第一手信號。剛開始銷售額往往會下降，因為樂觀的開發(fā)商會試圖死撐到控市政策不了了之，一心希望好景再返。盡管在5月出現(xiàn)了18%的反彈，許多分析家仍相信房產(chǎn)銷售量正在急劇下跌。

　　Developers can stay out of the market only for as long as they can stay out of the red. As theircash pile dwindles and liabilities fall due, they will be forced to sell, whatever the marketconditions. To give themselves more leeway, bigger developers have turned away from fickleonshore financing to international bond markets. The 30 developers rated by Standard Poors, a rating agency, raised about $8 billion of mostly five-year money in the first fivemonths of this year, compared with $8.8 billion in the whole of 2010, itself a record year.Developers can bring this money back into the country, despite Chinas capital controls,provided they show a bit of patience and a commitment to build things in unfancied cities.

　　只有能擺脫虧損，開發(fā)商才會愿意撤出市場。隨著現(xiàn)金減少，貸款到期，無論市場條件如何，他們也得被迫出售手中的房。為了給自己留有更大的余地，更有實力的開發(fā)商已從變數(shù)多端的境內(nèi)融資轉(zhuǎn)向國際債券市場。30家開發(fā)商由評級機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾給予評級，在今年的前5個月里便募集到了約80億美元的5年期資金，而在2010年里則募集到了88億美元。盡管中國對資本有控制，開發(fā)商也可以將這些資金帶回國，只要他們對在一些不起眼的城市里建房表現(xiàn)出一點耐心和誠意。

　　Even so, the debts of many smaller developers will fall due next year. Standard Poorsexpects property prices to fall by about 10% over the next 12 months, but it does not ruleout a price war if distressed selling by overstretched developers begins to feed on itself. IfChinas property market is a bubble, it may end with a squeal as well as a pop.

　　盡管如此，許多更小型開發(fā)商的債務(wù)將會在明年到期。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾預(yù)計在未來12月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)價格將會下跌10%，但如果資金已透支的開發(fā)商通過廉價出售房產(chǎn)可以填補(bǔ)得了這些債務(wù)，也不排除將會有一場價格戰(zhàn)。如果中國的房地產(chǎn)市場是個泡沫，最后很可能會噼里啪啦般爆破掉。