當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間12月4日，2024年奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)禮進(jìn)入90天倒計(jì)時(shí)。官方公布了一支宣傳視頻，整個(gè)影片以混剪為主，包括《神奇女俠》、《變形金剛5》、《速度與激情8》、《銀河護(hù)衛(wèi)隊(duì)2》、《敦刻爾克》、《美國(guó)制造》、《金剛狼3》、《蜘蛛俠：英雄歸來(lái)》等今年上映電影的鏡頭。

video video 值得一提的是，奧斯卡并沒(méi)有避諱上一屆最佳影片頒錯(cuò)獎(jiǎng)的“烏龍”，而是大大方方地將這一情節(jié)剪輯在了短片之中，令人再一次回味了這一“歷史性的時(shí)刻”。

本屆奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)典禮將于明年3月4日舉行，依然由吉米?坎摩爾擔(dān)任主持。雖然目前許多獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的提名名單還沒(méi)有公布，但隨著頒獎(jiǎng)禮的臨近，各大媒體已經(jīng)開始對(duì)本屆奧斯卡的大贏家做出自己的預(yù)測(cè)和判斷。

《敦刻爾克》、《華盛頓郵報(bào)》、《請(qǐng)以你的名字呼喚我》、《逃出絕命鎮(zhèn)》等熱門沖獎(jiǎng)作品究竟誰(shuí)的勝算更大，一起來(lái)看看BBC的分析吧。

Dunkirk

《敦刻爾克》

Christopher Nolan's World War II feature is probably just about the front runner for best film.

克里斯托弗?諾蘭的這部二戰(zhàn)題材電影可能就是最佳影片的領(lǐng)跑者。

For: Well-received by both audiences and critics, it tells a crucial slice of history.

支持：《敦刻爾克》講述了一場(chǎng)重要的歷史事件，深受觀眾和影評(píng)人喜愛。

Against: Although it picked up a best editing prize from the LA Film Critics Association, it was ignored by their New York counterparts. Could its momentum be waning?

反對(duì)：盡管該片被洛杉磯影評(píng)人協(xié)會(huì)評(píng)為最佳剪輯獎(jiǎng)，但卻沒(méi)有受到紐約影評(píng)人的重視。它的勢(shì)頭會(huì)逐漸減弱嗎？

Best chances: Best film and best director. Surprisingly, Nolan has never received a directing nomination from the Academy.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：最佳電影獎(jiǎng)和最佳導(dǎo)演獎(jiǎng)，讓人意外的是，諾蘭從未獲得過(guò)奧斯卡獎(jiǎng)提名。

The Post

《華盛頓郵報(bào)》

Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep in front of the camera, with Steven Spielberg directing a historic battle over press freedom - there's much for awards voters to admire.

湯姆?漢克斯和梅麗爾?斯特里普出演，史蒂文?斯皮爾伯格執(zhí)導(dǎo)，這樣一個(gè)為資訊自由而戰(zhàn)的歷史故事，有很多讓評(píng)委刮目相看的地方。

For: The National Board of Review gave it their best film, actor and actress awards.

支持：美國(guó)國(guó)家評(píng)論協(xié)會(huì)將最佳電影、最佳男主角和最佳女主角獎(jiǎng)?lì)C給了這部電影。

Against: There was no love from the New York nor LA critics.

反對(duì)：紐約時(shí)和洛杉磯影評(píng)人協(xié)會(huì)都對(duì)該片無(wú)感。

Best chances: It's always hard to bet against Streep getting a best actress nomination, and Hanks is overdue for an acting nomination after missing out in recent years.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：很難相信斯特里普得不到最佳女主角提名，而漢克斯在銷聲匿跡幾年后，早該獲得一項(xiàng)表演類提名了。

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

《三塊廣告牌》

Frances McDormand giving an outstanding central performance as a grieving mother in this darkly comic story.

弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德在這個(gè)黑色喜劇故事中扮演一位悲傷的母親，展現(xiàn)了出色的核心表演。

For: It picked up the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival, often a key awards indicator.

支持：該片在多倫多國(guó)際電影節(jié)上獲得人民選擇獎(jiǎng)，這個(gè)獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)通常是一個(gè)重要的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。

Against: To some extent it's divided American audiences, perhaps damaging its hopes of winning best film.

反對(duì)：在某種程度上，《三塊廣告牌》分裂了美國(guó)觀眾，它贏得最佳影片的希望或許會(huì)因此破滅。

Best chances: Best film, and best original screenplay recognition looks certain, and Frances McDormand is currently the favorite for the best actress Oscar.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：最佳影片、最佳原創(chuàng)劇本獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的提名應(yīng)該是肯定的，而弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德現(xiàn)在是奧斯卡最佳女主角獎(jiǎng)的最熱人選。

Call Me By Your Name

《請(qǐng)以我的名字呼喚你》

A tender love story between a teenager and an academic, set in Italy.

《請(qǐng)以我的名字呼喚你》背景設(shè)定在意大利，講述了的一個(gè)少年和一個(gè)學(xué)者之間的柔情之戀。

For: The Los Angeles Critics Association gave it their top prize.

支持：洛杉磯影評(píng)人協(xié)會(huì)將其評(píng)為最佳影片。

Against: Strong in many categories, but without quite managing to be a front runner in any. Perhaps Timothee Chalamet's performance is its best chance of awards success.

反對(duì)：《請(qǐng)以我的名字呼喚你》在很多方面的表現(xiàn)都很不錯(cuò)，但卻沒(méi)有哪一方面是最突出的。也許“甜茶”蒂莫西?克萊門特的表演是該片沖奧的最大可能。

Best chances: A best film nomination looks certain. Darkest Hour's Gary Oldman is the favorite for best actor, but if anyone can beat him it's probably Chalamet.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：最佳電影提名應(yīng)該可以肯定。參演《至暗時(shí)刻》的加里?奧德曼是最佳男主角的最熱人選，如果說(shuō)有誰(shuí)能擊敗他的話，那可能就是克萊門特了。

The Shape of Water

《水形物語(yǔ)》

An otherworldly romance between a mysterious aquatic creature and a mute girl, played by Sally Hawkins.

影片講述了一個(gè)神秘的水生生物和莎莉?霍金斯扮演的啞女之間超凡脫俗的愛情故事。

For: Since it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, it's being wowing audiences.

支持：該片在威尼斯電影節(jié)首映后，獲得觀眾喝彩。

Against: It might be that bit too far from the mainstream to make a huge awards impact.

反對(duì)：影片可能太過(guò)非主流，不具有獲得大獎(jiǎng)的影響力。

Best chances: Sally Hawkins is only a fraction behind current best actress favorite Frances McDormand.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：在最佳女主角的最熱人選弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德面前，莎莉?霍金斯的獲獎(jiǎng)幾率很小。

Get Out

《逃出絕命鎮(zhèn)》

Chris Washington, played by London-born Daniel Kaluuya, is drawn into the sinister underbelly of a small American community.

英國(guó)演員丹尼爾?卡盧亞扮演的克里斯?華盛頓卷入到一個(gè)美國(guó)小鎮(zhèn)的邪惡陰謀中。

For: A huge box office hit that could benefit from a slowly-changing Oscar voting demographic.

支持：影片可能會(huì)憑借出色的票房表現(xiàn)從緩慢變革的奧斯卡投票人群上獲益。

Against: Opening so early in the year outside of awards season could hinder its chances.

反對(duì)：在頒獎(jiǎng)季前一年早早上映可能不利于其沖獎(jiǎng)。

Best chance: If there are nine or 10 best picture nominees, it could grab a spot. Jordan Peele's screenplay looks certain to be recognized.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：如果這屆奧斯卡最佳影片的提名數(shù)有9或10部電影的話，那么《逃出絕命鎮(zhèn)》能占一個(gè)。喬登?皮爾的劇本應(yīng)該一定會(huì)被提名。

Darkest Hour

《至暗時(shí)刻》

Gary Oldman on blistering form as Winston Churchill.

加里?奧德曼飾演了憤怒的溫斯頓?丘吉爾。

For: Oldman's seemingly effortless embodiment of the wartime leader has won almost universal

支持：奧德曼塑造的戰(zhàn)時(shí)領(lǐng)袖丘吉爾收獲一致好評(píng)，而這對(duì)他似乎是手到擒來(lái)的。

Against: It's not yet managing to win top honors from critics' groups.

反對(duì)：《至暗時(shí)刻》目前還沒(méi)有被一所影評(píng)機(jī)構(gòu)評(píng)為最佳電影。

Best chance: Oldman has been the favorite for best actor since the film's Telluride premiere.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：自從在特萊瑞德電影節(jié)首映以來(lái)，奧德曼一直就是最佳男主角獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的寵兒。

The Florida Project

《佛羅里達(dá)樂(lè)園》

A child's eye view of life in a Florida motel community.

從一個(gè)孩子的視角，講述佛羅里達(dá)州一家汽車旅館社區(qū)的生活。

For: Strong reviews, and praise for the performances - particularly from the children at the centre of the story, and Willem Dafoe, who plays the manager of the motel where they live.

支持：影片演技大獲好評(píng)，尤其是故事的主人公——那些孩子們，以及旅館經(jīng)理的扮演者威廉?達(dá)福。

Against: Could the film be seen as a film of great performances, rather than a truly great piece of cinema?

反對(duì)：可以把這部電影當(dāng)作一部演技在線的影片，而不是一部真正偉大的作品嗎？

Best chances: Dafoe is probably the current front runner for best supporting actor.

預(yù)測(cè)：達(dá)福目前可能是最佳男配角的領(lǐng)跑者。

當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間12月4日，2024年奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)禮進(jìn)入90天倒計(jì)時(shí)。官方公布了一支宣傳視頻，整個(gè)影片以混剪為主，包括《神奇女俠》、《變形金剛5》、《速度與激情8》、《銀河護(hù)衛(wèi)隊(duì)2》、《敦刻爾克》、《美國(guó)制造》、《金剛狼3》、《蜘蛛俠：英雄歸來(lái)》等今年上映電影的鏡頭。

video video 值得一提的是，奧斯卡并沒(méi)有避諱上一屆最佳影片頒錯(cuò)獎(jiǎng)的“烏龍”，而是大大方方地將這一情節(jié)剪輯在了短片之中，令人再一次回味了這一“歷史性的時(shí)刻”。

本屆奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)典禮將于明年3月4日舉行，依然由吉米?坎摩爾擔(dān)任主持。雖然目前許多獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的提名名單還沒(méi)有公布，但隨著頒獎(jiǎng)禮的臨近，各大媒體已經(jīng)開始對(duì)本屆奧斯卡的大贏家做出自己的預(yù)測(cè)和判斷。

《敦刻爾克》、《華盛頓郵報(bào)》、《請(qǐng)以你的名字呼喚我》、《逃出絕命鎮(zhèn)》等熱門沖獎(jiǎng)作品究竟誰(shuí)的勝算更大，一起來(lái)看看BBC的分析吧。

Dunkirk

《敦刻爾克》

Christopher Nolan's World War II feature is probably just about the front runner for best film.

克里斯托弗?諾蘭的這部二戰(zhàn)題材電影可能就是最佳影片的領(lǐng)跑者。

For: Well-received by both audiences and critics, it tells a crucial slice of history.

支持：《敦刻爾克》講述了一場(chǎng)重要的歷史事件，深受觀眾和影評(píng)人喜愛。

Against: Although it picked up a best editing prize from the LA Film Critics Association, it was ignored by their New York counterparts. Could its momentum be waning?

反對(duì)：盡管該片被洛杉磯影評(píng)人協(xié)會(huì)評(píng)為最佳剪輯獎(jiǎng)，但卻沒(méi)有受到紐約影評(píng)人的重視。它的勢(shì)頭會(huì)逐漸減弱嗎？

Best chances: Best film and best director. Surprisingly, Nolan has never received a directing nomination from the Academy.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：最佳電影獎(jiǎng)和最佳導(dǎo)演獎(jiǎng)，讓人意外的是，諾蘭從未獲得過(guò)奧斯卡獎(jiǎng)提名。

The Post

《華盛頓郵報(bào)》

Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep in front of the camera, with Steven Spielberg directing a historic battle over press freedom - there's much for awards voters to admire.

湯姆?漢克斯和梅麗爾?斯特里普出演，史蒂文?斯皮爾伯格執(zhí)導(dǎo)，這樣一個(gè)為資訊自由而戰(zhàn)的歷史故事，有很多讓評(píng)委刮目相看的地方。

For: The National Board of Review gave it their best film, actor and actress awards.

支持：美國(guó)國(guó)家評(píng)論協(xié)會(huì)將最佳電影、最佳男主角和最佳女主角獎(jiǎng)?lì)C給了這部電影。

Against: There was no love from the New York nor LA critics.

反對(duì)：紐約時(shí)和洛杉磯影評(píng)人協(xié)會(huì)都對(duì)該片無(wú)感。

Best chances: It's always hard to bet against Streep getting a best actress nomination, and Hanks is overdue for an acting nomination after missing out in recent years.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：很難相信斯特里普得不到最佳女主角提名，而漢克斯在銷聲匿跡幾年后，早該獲得一項(xiàng)表演類提名了。

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

《三塊廣告牌》

Frances McDormand giving an outstanding central performance as a grieving mother in this darkly comic story.

弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德在這個(gè)黑色喜劇故事中扮演一位悲傷的母親，展現(xiàn)了出色的核心表演。

For: It picked up the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival, often a key awards indicator.

支持：該片在多倫多國(guó)際電影節(jié)上獲得人民選擇獎(jiǎng)，這個(gè)獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)通常是一個(gè)重要的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。

Against: To some extent it's divided American audiences, perhaps damaging its hopes of winning best film.

反對(duì)：在某種程度上，《三塊廣告牌》分裂了美國(guó)觀眾，它贏得最佳影片的希望或許會(huì)因此破滅。

Best chances: Best film, and best original screenplay recognition looks certain, and Frances McDormand is currently the favorite for the best actress Oscar.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：最佳影片、最佳原創(chuàng)劇本獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的提名應(yīng)該是肯定的，而弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德現(xiàn)在是奧斯卡最佳女主角獎(jiǎng)的最熱人選。

Call Me By Your Name

《請(qǐng)以我的名字呼喚你》

A tender love story between a teenager and an academic, set in Italy.

《請(qǐng)以我的名字呼喚你》背景設(shè)定在意大利，講述了的一個(gè)少年和一個(gè)學(xué)者之間的柔情之戀。

For: The Los Angeles Critics Association gave it their top prize.

支持：洛杉磯影評(píng)人協(xié)會(huì)將其評(píng)為最佳影片。

Against: Strong in many categories, but without quite managing to be a front runner in any. Perhaps Timothee Chalamet's performance is its best chance of awards success.

反對(duì)：《請(qǐng)以我的名字呼喚你》在很多方面的表現(xiàn)都很不錯(cuò)，但卻沒(méi)有哪一方面是最突出的。也許“甜茶”蒂莫西?克萊門特的表演是該片沖奧的最大可能。

Best chances: A best film nomination looks certain. Darkest Hour's Gary Oldman is the favorite for best actor, but if anyone can beat him it's probably Chalamet.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：最佳電影提名應(yīng)該可以肯定。參演《至暗時(shí)刻》的加里?奧德曼是最佳男主角的最熱人選，如果說(shuō)有誰(shuí)能擊敗他的話，那可能就是克萊門特了。

The Shape of Water

《水形物語(yǔ)》

An otherworldly romance between a mysterious aquatic creature and a mute girl, played by Sally Hawkins.

影片講述了一個(gè)神秘的水生生物和莎莉?霍金斯扮演的啞女之間超凡脫俗的愛情故事。

For: Since it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, it's being wowing audiences.

支持：該片在威尼斯電影節(jié)首映后，獲得觀眾喝彩。

Against: It might be that bit too far from the mainstream to make a huge awards impact.

反對(duì)：影片可能太過(guò)非主流，不具有獲得大獎(jiǎng)的影響力。

Best chances: Sally Hawkins is only a fraction behind current best actress favorite Frances McDormand.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：在最佳女主角的最熱人選弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德面前，莎莉?霍金斯的獲獎(jiǎng)幾率很小。

Get Out

《逃出絕命鎮(zhèn)》

Chris Washington, played by London-born Daniel Kaluuya, is drawn into the sinister underbelly of a small American community.

英國(guó)演員丹尼爾?卡盧亞扮演的克里斯?華盛頓卷入到一個(gè)美國(guó)小鎮(zhèn)的邪惡陰謀中。

For: A huge box office hit that could benefit from a slowly-changing Oscar voting demographic.

支持：影片可能會(huì)憑借出色的票房表現(xiàn)從緩慢變革的奧斯卡投票人群上獲益。

Against: Opening so early in the year outside of awards season could hinder its chances.

反對(duì)：在頒獎(jiǎng)季前一年早早上映可能不利于其沖獎(jiǎng)。

Best chance: If there are nine or 10 best picture nominees, it could grab a spot. Jordan Peele's screenplay looks certain to be recognized.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：如果這屆奧斯卡最佳影片的提名數(shù)有9或10部電影的話，那么《逃出絕命鎮(zhèn)》能占一個(gè)。喬登?皮爾的劇本應(yīng)該一定會(huì)被提名。

Darkest Hour

《至暗時(shí)刻》

Gary Oldman on blistering form as Winston Churchill.

加里?奧德曼飾演了憤怒的溫斯頓?丘吉爾。

For: Oldman's seemingly effortless embodiment of the wartime leader has won almost universal

支持：奧德曼塑造的戰(zhàn)時(shí)領(lǐng)袖丘吉爾收獲一致好評(píng)，而這對(duì)他似乎是手到擒來(lái)的。

Against: It's not yet managing to win top honors from critics' groups.

反對(duì)：《至暗時(shí)刻》目前還沒(méi)有被一所影評(píng)機(jī)構(gòu)評(píng)為最佳電影。

Best chance: Oldman has been the favorite for best actor since the film's Telluride premiere.

沖擊獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)：自從在特萊瑞德電影節(jié)首映以來(lái)，奧德曼一直就是最佳男主角獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的寵兒。

The Florida Project

《佛羅里達(dá)樂(lè)園》

A child's eye view of life in a Florida motel community.

從一個(gè)孩子的視角，講述佛羅里達(dá)州一家汽車旅館社區(qū)的生活。

For: Strong reviews, and praise for the performances - particularly from the children at the centre of the story, and Willem Dafoe, who plays the manager of the motel where they live.

支持：影片演技大獲好評(píng)，尤其是故事的主人公——那些孩子們，以及旅館經(jīng)理的扮演者威廉?達(dá)福。

Against: Could the film be seen as a film of great performances, rather than a truly great piece of cinema?

反對(duì)：可以把這部電影當(dāng)作一部演技在線的影片，而不是一部真正偉大的作品嗎？

Best chances: Dafoe is probably the current front runner for best supporting actor.

預(yù)測(cè)：達(dá)福目前可能是最佳男配角的領(lǐng)跑者。