Whatever floats your boat

　　只要人民高興

　　A FORMER chairman of the Federal Reserve, PaulVolcker, once compared financial markets to a seathat was prone to occasional storms. It was better,he said, to be on a big ship when the waters got choppy. But recent events have turned thislogic on its head. Market squalls have tossed some of the bigger vessels in the euro-zoneflotilla, including Italy and Spain. Nervous investors are jumping instead into some of Europesoutlying bond markets, such as Sweden, Denmarkand Britain. Although an unlikely havenbecause of its weak economy, huge private debts, high inflation and swollen deficit, Britainsten-year bond yieldie, the price the Treasury must pay to borrow money for a decadefellto a record low of 2.2% this month.

　　前美聯(lián)儲主席保羅?沃爾克曾經(jīng)把金融市場比作隨時可能暴風驟雨的汪洋大海，說在風起云涌的大海中，還是大船比較保險。可近期發(fā)生的種種卻完全顛覆了他的說法。市場風暴將歐元區(qū)艦隊中包括意大利，西班牙在內(nèi)的大型戰(zhàn)艦折磨的破敗不堪。猶如驚弓之鳥的投資者們紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向歐洲一些外緣債券市場，如瑞典，丹麥，英國。經(jīng)濟疲軟，私人債務高企，高通脹和腫脹的赤字，讓英國不再是那么安全的避難所，但英國十年期債券收益率，也就是國家需支付借債十年以來的利息的占本息總價格的百分比，已經(jīng)在這個月下降至2.2%,創(chuàng)史上新低。

　　Plunging bond yields are not grounds for great cheer. In part, they reflect a fearful retreatfrom riskier equities and an expectation that low interest rates as a medicine for a sick globaleconomy will be around for a while. But the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, hasbeen quick to claim that the drop in the governments borrowing costs indicates the marketsconfidence in his deficit-reduction plan.

　　債券收益率下降，可別高興的太早。從某種程度上說，這是人們紛紛從高風險股撤退的危險征兆，也說明希望以低利率解決全球經(jīng)濟萎靡的呼聲將會持續(xù)一段時間。但是財政大臣喬治?奧斯本已迅速聲明政府借貸成本的下降表示的是市場對政府削減赤字計劃的信心。

　　There is something to this. In early 2010, even as the euros debt crisis was building, Britainsbond yields were on a par with those of Spain, which has a similarly large budget deficit butsmaller public debt. Their paths have since diverged . Bond markets, it seems,have taken a more clement view of Britain than of Spain, even though GDP has risen by only0.7% in the past year in both countries. Mr Osbornes plan, first unveiled in June 2010, hashelped distance Britain from fiscal troubles in the euro zone. It may, of course, simply be thatthe fetters of euro membership alarm investors more than red ink.

　　有這樣一種說法。早在2010年，即使是在歐元債務危機已經(jīng)爆發(fā)的情況下，英國債券收益率與西班牙仍是持平，不過之后兩國收益率的差異也日益明顯;當時英國與西班牙擁有同樣的巨額預算赤字，但西班牙的國債規(guī)模較小。盡管兩國去年的GDP增長都只有7%，可債券市場對英國的態(tài)度似乎要比西班牙更溫和。奧斯本先生在2010年7 月首次公開的計劃使得英國規(guī)避了歐元區(qū)的財務糾葛。也許簡單來說歐元對于其成員的束縛，比起英國的財政赤字，是讓投資者更為擔憂的對象。

　　Yet it would be a mistake to put too much trust in that interpretation. Britain is still an outlier in terms of its budget deficit, which was a touch below 10% of GDP in the financial year ending in April. Only America, Greece and Ireland had bigger deficit ratios last year. Two of those have lost the faith of markets; America will be the first port of call for anxious investors for as long as it remains the worlds main reserve currency. Britain is adding to its public-debt burden at a faster rate than most others and bond markets can turn quickly, so it is prudent to shrink the deficit towards the rich-world norm. That said, credibility won by this years fiscal tightening may buy the space to cut more slowly in future, if the economy stays weak.

　　然而如果對這種解釋過分信任，也是錯。在預算赤字方面，英國仍然是個異類，在截止于四月的財政年度中，英國的預算赤字，下觸GDP的10%以下。去年只有美國，希臘，愛爾蘭的赤字率較高。希臘和愛爾蘭已經(jīng)失去了市場信任;只要美元依然是世界主要貨幣儲備，美國便是那些不安投資者的首選安全港。英國的債務負擔正以較他國更快的速度增長，債券市場也隨時可能風云突變。因此英國在削減赤字方面會一再小心以達到富國標準。那就是說，如果經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)疲軟，由今年的財政緊縮換取的市場信任可能會給以后的逐步減赤獲得空間。

　　The job of sparking the economy to life thus falls to the Bank of England. It has kept interest rates at a low of 0.5% and might yet launch another round of quantitative easing if the euro crisis turns even nastier. But the banks loose-money stance is awkward given that inflation was 4.4% in July and has exceeded the 2% target for most of the past four years.

　　這樣，經(jīng)濟復蘇的任務就落在了英國央行的頭上。英國央行已經(jīng)將利率保持在0.5%的歷史低位,甚至可能會在歐債危機繼續(xù)惡化的時候采取新一輪量化寬松政策 ?？墒怯?月份的通脹率為4.4%,已然超過了英國央行過去四年2%的通脹目標，這使銀行寬松的貨幣政策顯得笨拙與不合時宜。

　　One interpretation of the banks policy is to think of it as setting interest rates that allow nominal GDP growth at a rate that would be consistent with its inflation target, absent unexpected price shocks such as a sudden rise in the cost of oil . On that basis, policy has not been unduly slack: the growth rate of nominal GDP is in line with its average rate in recent years . The bad news for Britain is that too much of this has been inflationbecause of high oil prices, a weak pound and increased VATand too little from real growth.

　　對量化寬松政策的一種解釋是認為該政策的實施如同設定了一種銀行利率。這種利率使得名義GDP增長率與通脹目標保持一致，并排除意外的價格沖擊如原油價格上漲的影響 。在此基礎上的政策就不會過度寬松:名義國民生產(chǎn)總值的增長率與近年來的平均匯率相一致。但不利的是，在高油價，英鎊疲軟和增值稅上調(diào)的情況下，過度的量化寬松政策會導致嚴重的通貨膨脹，而過于保守也會難以得到真正的經(jīng)濟增長。

　　A budget tightening plus loose money is the rightway to insure against risks. Britains household debtis among the worlds highest as a share of income;most of it is charged at variable interest rates andthus linked to the borrowing costs set by the Bankof England. Even a small rise in interest rates wouldhurt borrowers, increase bad debts and perhapseven spur fire-sales of homes. A loss of a triple-Abond rating would be more painful for Britain thanfor most countries, because the state stands behindan oversized banking sector. Britain must avoid thespiral that afflicts some euro-zone countries, in which sovereign-debt fears lead to worriesabout bank solvency, raise banks funding costs, slow the economy and hurt tax revenue.

　　預算削減加上貨幣寬松是可以規(guī)避風險的。英國的占收入部分家庭負債達世界最高水平。他們中的大多數(shù)用的是可變利率貸款，這也因此與央行的借貸成本有關(guān)系。即使微微調(diào)高利率也可能會給借款人造成損失，增加壞賬，甚至可能導致借款人變賣房產(chǎn)。若英國失掉AAA主權(quán)信用評級，他會比其他國家更慘，因為英國國內(nèi)龐大的銀行機構(gòu)必須靠國家的良好信用正常運轉(zhuǎn)。英國必須規(guī)避像其他一些歐元區(qū)國家的風險升級，一旦風險升級，市場對國債的恐慌必將導致其對銀行償債能力的擔憂，從而使銀行融資成本增加，經(jīng)濟增長受阻，稅收壓力增加。

　　In a healthier economy, low bond yields would normally be a catalyst for investment bycompanies, as yields on gilts, as British government bonds are known, are a benchmark for thecost of long-term commercial borrowing. Alas, many firms are already sitting on cash theyseem unwilling to spend. Thus the main benefit of low yields is to the public finances. Britainplans to issue ?169 billion of bonds this year to cover the deficit, and to pay off?49 billion of debt that is coming due. Lower interest costs will make cutting the deficit a littleeasier in future years. That is a small mercy. A bigger one is that investors still trust gilts,despite Britains many problems.

　　在相對健康的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境里，低債券收益率通常會刺激企業(yè)投資，其中金邊債券就是我們熟知的英國債券，它的收益率，就是長期商業(yè)借貸資本的基準。哎，可是太多的公司都是守財奴。也因此低收益率的主要受益者便是公共財政。英國今年計劃發(fā)行價值1690億英鎊都只是小恩小惠,真正令人感恩戴德的便是那些無論英國有多少問題，都依然是金邊債券忠實粉絲的投資者們。

　　Whatever floats your boat

　　只要人民高興

　　A FORMER chairman of the Federal Reserve, PaulVolcker, once compared financial markets to a seathat was prone to occasional storms. It was better,he said, to be on a big ship when the waters got choppy. But recent events have turned thislogic on its head. Market squalls have tossed some of the bigger vessels in the euro-zoneflotilla, including Italy and Spain. Nervous investors are jumping instead into some of Europesoutlying bond markets, such as Sweden, Denmarkand Britain. Although an unlikely havenbecause of its weak economy, huge private debts, high inflation and swollen deficit, Britainsten-year bond yieldie, the price the Treasury must pay to borrow money for a decadefellto a record low of 2.2% this month.

　　前美聯(lián)儲主席保羅?沃爾克曾經(jīng)把金融市場比作隨時可能暴風驟雨的汪洋大海，說在風起云涌的大海中，還是大船比較保險。可近期發(fā)生的種種卻完全顛覆了他的說法。市場風暴將歐元區(qū)艦隊中包括意大利，西班牙在內(nèi)的大型戰(zhàn)艦折磨的破敗不堪。猶如驚弓之鳥的投資者們紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向歐洲一些外緣債券市場，如瑞典，丹麥，英國。經(jīng)濟疲軟，私人債務高企，高通脹和腫脹的赤字，讓英國不再是那么安全的避難所，但英國十年期債券收益率，也就是國家需支付借債十年以來的利息的占本息總價格的百分比，已經(jīng)在這個月下降至2.2%,創(chuàng)史上新低。

　　Plunging bond yields are not grounds for great cheer. In part, they reflect a fearful retreatfrom riskier equities and an expectation that low interest rates as a medicine for a sick globaleconomy will be around for a while. But the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, hasbeen quick to claim that the drop in the governments borrowing costs indicates the marketsconfidence in his deficit-reduction plan.

　　債券收益率下降，可別高興的太早。從某種程度上說，這是人們紛紛從高風險股撤退的危險征兆，也說明希望以低利率解決全球經(jīng)濟萎靡的呼聲將會持續(xù)一段時間。但是財政大臣喬治?奧斯本已迅速聲明政府借貸成本的下降表示的是市場對政府削減赤字計劃的信心。

　　There is something to this. In early 2010, even as the euros debt crisis was building, Britainsbond yields were on a par with those of Spain, which has a similarly large budget deficit butsmaller public debt. Their paths have since diverged . Bond markets, it seems,have taken a more clement view of Britain than of Spain, even though GDP has risen by only0.7% in the past year in both countries. Mr Osbornes plan, first unveiled in June 2010, hashelped distance Britain from fiscal troubles in the euro zone. It may, of course, simply be thatthe fetters of euro membership alarm investors more than red ink.

　　有這樣一種說法。早在2010年，即使是在歐元債務危機已經(jīng)爆發(fā)的情況下，英國債券收益率與西班牙仍是持平，不過之后兩國收益率的差異也日益明顯;當時英國與西班牙擁有同樣的巨額預算赤字，但西班牙的國債規(guī)模較小。盡管兩國去年的GDP增長都只有7%，可債券市場對英國的態(tài)度似乎要比西班牙更溫和。奧斯本先生在2010年7 月首次公開的計劃使得英國規(guī)避了歐元區(qū)的財務糾葛。也許簡單來說歐元對于其成員的束縛，比起英國的財政赤字，是讓投資者更為擔憂的對象。

　　Yet it would be a mistake to put too much trust in that interpretation. Britain is still an outlier in terms of its budget deficit, which was a touch below 10% of GDP in the financial year ending in April. Only America, Greece and Ireland had bigger deficit ratios last year. Two of those have lost the faith of markets; America will be the first port of call for anxious investors for as long as it remains the worlds main reserve currency. Britain is adding to its public-debt burden at a faster rate than most others and bond markets can turn quickly, so it is prudent to shrink the deficit towards the rich-world norm. That said, credibility won by this years fiscal tightening may buy the space to cut more slowly in future, if the economy stays weak.

　　然而如果對這種解釋過分信任，也是錯。在預算赤字方面，英國仍然是個異類，在截止于四月的財政年度中，英國的預算赤字，下觸GDP的10%以下。去年只有美國，希臘，愛爾蘭的赤字率較高。希臘和愛爾蘭已經(jīng)失去了市場信任;只要美元依然是世界主要貨幣儲備，美國便是那些不安投資者的首選安全港。英國的債務負擔正以較他國更快的速度增長，債券市場也隨時可能風云突變。因此英國在削減赤字方面會一再小心以達到富國標準。那就是說，如果經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)疲軟，由今年的財政緊縮換取的市場信任可能會給以后的逐步減赤獲得空間。

　　The job of sparking the economy to life thus falls to the Bank of England. It has kept interest rates at a low of 0.5% and might yet launch another round of quantitative easing if the euro crisis turns even nastier. But the banks loose-money stance is awkward given that inflation was 4.4% in July and has exceeded the 2% target for most of the past four years.

　　這樣，經(jīng)濟復蘇的任務就落在了英國央行的頭上。英國央行已經(jīng)將利率保持在0.5%的歷史低位,甚至可能會在歐債危機繼續(xù)惡化的時候采取新一輪量化寬松政策 ?？墒怯?月份的通脹率為4.4%,已然超過了英國央行過去四年2%的通脹目標，這使銀行寬松的貨幣政策顯得笨拙與不合時宜。

　　One interpretation of the banks policy is to think of it as setting interest rates that allow nominal GDP growth at a rate that would be consistent with its inflation target, absent unexpected price shocks such as a sudden rise in the cost of oil . On that basis, policy has not been unduly slack: the growth rate of nominal GDP is in line with its average rate in recent years . The bad news for Britain is that too much of this has been inflationbecause of high oil prices, a weak pound and increased VATand too little from real growth.

　　對量化寬松政策的一種解釋是認為該政策的實施如同設定了一種銀行利率。這種利率使得名義GDP增長率與通脹目標保持一致，并排除意外的價格沖擊如原油價格上漲的影響 。在此基礎上的政策就不會過度寬松:名義國民生產(chǎn)總值的增長率與近年來的平均匯率相一致。但不利的是，在高油價，英鎊疲軟和增值稅上調(diào)的情況下，過度的量化寬松政策會導致嚴重的通貨膨脹，而過于保守也會難以得到真正的經(jīng)濟增長。

　　A budget tightening plus loose money is the rightway to insure against risks. Britains household debtis among the worlds highest as a share of income;most of it is charged at variable interest rates andthus linked to the borrowing costs set by the Bankof England. Even a small rise in interest rates wouldhurt borrowers, increase bad debts and perhapseven spur fire-sales of homes. A loss of a triple-Abond rating would be more painful for Britain thanfor most countries, because the state stands behindan oversized banking sector. Britain must avoid thespiral that afflicts some euro-zone countries, in which sovereign-debt fears lead to worriesabout bank solvency, raise banks funding costs, slow the economy and hurt tax revenue.

　　預算削減加上貨幣寬松是可以規(guī)避風險的。英國的占收入部分家庭負債達世界最高水平。他們中的大多數(shù)用的是可變利率貸款，這也因此與央行的借貸成本有關(guān)系。即使微微調(diào)高利率也可能會給借款人造成損失，增加壞賬，甚至可能導致借款人變賣房產(chǎn)。若英國失掉AAA主權(quán)信用評級，他會比其他國家更慘，因為英國國內(nèi)龐大的銀行機構(gòu)必須靠國家的良好信用正常運轉(zhuǎn)。英國必須規(guī)避像其他一些歐元區(qū)國家的風險升級，一旦風險升級，市場對國債的恐慌必將導致其對銀行償債能力的擔憂，從而使銀行融資成本增加，經(jīng)濟增長受阻，稅收壓力增加。

　　In a healthier economy, low bond yields would normally be a catalyst for investment bycompanies, as yields on gilts, as British government bonds are known, are a benchmark for thecost of long-term commercial borrowing. Alas, many firms are already sitting on cash theyseem unwilling to spend. Thus the main benefit of low yields is to the public finances. Britainplans to issue ?169 billion of bonds this year to cover the deficit, and to pay off?49 billion of debt that is coming due. Lower interest costs will make cutting the deficit a littleeasier in future years. That is a small mercy. A bigger one is that investors still trust gilts,despite Britains many problems.

　　在相對健康的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境里，低債券收益率通常會刺激企業(yè)投資，其中金邊債券就是我們熟知的英國債券，它的收益率，就是長期商業(yè)借貸資本的基準。哎，可是太多的公司都是守財奴。也因此低收益率的主要受益者便是公共財政。英國今年計劃發(fā)行價值1690億英鎊都只是小恩小惠,真正令人感恩戴德的便是那些無論英國有多少問題，都依然是金邊債券忠實粉絲的投資者們。