The University of Montana geophysicist knows you may have read the articles warning about "swarms of devastating earthquakes" that will allegedly rock the planet next year thanks to a slowdown of the Earth's rotation. And she feels "very awful" if you've been alarmed.

由于地球轉速減慢，明年將出現大量的強烈地震，許多文章稱這些地震會撼動整個地球。蒙大拿大學的地理學家稱，很多人都讀過這些文章并且受到了警示，這真“讓人不悅”。

Those dire threats are based on Bendick's research into patterns that might predict earthquakes - but claims of an impending "earthquake boom" are mostly sensationalism.

這些膽大妄言的警告都是基于Bendick對地球旋轉模式的研究，這一研究結果預測了地震的出現——但是宣稱人類面臨“地震狂潮”的說法絕大程度都是聳人聽聞。

Here is what the science actually says.There is no way to predict an individual earthquake. Earthquakes occur when potential energy stored along cracks in the planet's crust gets released, sending seismic waves through the Earth.

這位科學家確切的說法是這樣的。目前沒有辦法預測單個的地震。當地殼斷層中儲蓄的勢能被釋放出來，向地表傳送地震波時就會出現地震群。

Since scientists know where those cracks exist, and how they are likely to convulse, they can develop forecasts of the general threat for an area. But the forces that contribute to this energy buildup and trigger its release are global and complex, and we still cannot sort out exactly how it might unfold.

科學家們知道這些斷層所在的位置，也了解地殼運動的模式，因而能夠預測大體某一地區可能出現的地震。但是形成地震勢能并激發勢能釋放的能量分布在全球各地，難以查尋，所以我們對這股能量如何釋放還沒有確切的了解。

Bendick and colleagues did find a curious correlation between clusters of certain earthquakes and periodic fluctuations in Earth's rotation.

Bendick和同事們發現地震群與地球轉速的周期性浮動之間存在有趣的聯系。

By examining the historic earthquake record and monitoring those fluctuations, scientists might be able to forecast years when earthquakes are more likely to occur, they suggest.

科學家們表示，通過察看歷史上的地震記錄并監視地球轉速的浮動周期，他們將可以預測地震發生可能性較高的年份。

But that conclusion is by no means set in stone. It hasn't been demonstrated in the lab or confirmed by follow-up studies. Several scientists have said they're not yet convinced by Bendick's research.

但是這一研究結論并沒有得到確證。它還沒有經過實驗室里的實驗驗證，也沒有得到后續研究的證實。許多科學家都表示Bendick的研究成果并不能使他們信服。

Historically, the field of earthquake forecasting has seen some particularly outlandish claims.

歷史上，為了預測地震，人們曾做過許多匪夷所思的嘗試。

People have tried to predict temblors based on the behaviour of animals, gas emissions from rocks, low-frequency electric signals rippling through the Earth - all without much success.

人們曾試圖根據動物的行為，巖石縫隙里泄露的氣體，低頻率的電磁場作用等來預測地震，但最終都未能成功。

For that reason, Bendick said, "it's a little bit scary to get into the game." But getting a prediction right can mean the difference between life and death for countless people. The stakes are too high not to try.

正因如此，Bendick說，“進入這個研究領域會讓人有些惶恐。”但是，做出準確的預測對于數以萬計的人來說是生死攸關的大事。這籌碼太大了，讓人不得不設身其中。

Earth is currently at the end of a slowing period, Bendick pointed out, and the historic record would indicate another "cluster" may be on its way.

地球目前正處于一個轉速減緩的周期末端，Bendick說，根據歷史上的記錄推斷，下一個地震群已經在路上了。

But that doesn't necessarily mean 2024 will be a particularly devastating year. For one thing, the kinds of temblors Bendick analysed happen in areas that are already earthquake-prone - Japan, New Zealand, the west coast of the United States. For people who live in those regions, there is always a risk of a quake, and it is always good to be prepared.

不過這并不意味著2024年會是災難深重的一年。這樣說的原因之一是，Bendick分析預測出的地震群發生的地點都是地震的高頻地帶——日本，新西蘭，美國西海岸。對住在這些地區的人來說，他們總面臨著地震的威脅，有備無患是很必要的。

The University of Montana geophysicist knows you may have read the articles warning about "swarms of devastating earthquakes" that will allegedly rock the planet next year thanks to a slowdown of the Earth's rotation. And she feels "very awful" if you've been alarmed.

由于地球轉速減慢，明年將出現大量的強烈地震，許多文章稱這些地震會撼動整個地球。蒙大拿大學的地理學家稱，很多人都讀過這些文章并且受到了警示，這真“讓人不悅”。

Those dire threats are based on Bendick's research into patterns that might predict earthquakes - but claims of an impending "earthquake boom" are mostly sensationalism.

這些膽大妄言的警告都是基于Bendick對地球旋轉模式的研究，這一研究結果預測了地震的出現——但是宣稱人類面臨“地震狂潮”的說法絕大程度都是聳人聽聞。

Here is what the science actually says.There is no way to predict an individual earthquake. Earthquakes occur when potential energy stored along cracks in the planet's crust gets released, sending seismic waves through the Earth.

這位科學家確切的說法是這樣的。目前沒有辦法預測單個的地震。當地殼斷層中儲蓄的勢能被釋放出來，向地表傳送地震波時就會出現地震群。

Since scientists know where those cracks exist, and how they are likely to convulse, they can develop forecasts of the general threat for an area. But the forces that contribute to this energy buildup and trigger its release are global and complex, and we still cannot sort out exactly how it might unfold.

科學家們知道這些斷層所在的位置，也了解地殼運動的模式，因而能夠預測大體某一地區可能出現的地震。但是形成地震勢能并激發勢能釋放的能量分布在全球各地，難以查尋，所以我們對這股能量如何釋放還沒有確切的了解。

Bendick and colleagues did find a curious correlation between clusters of certain earthquakes and periodic fluctuations in Earth's rotation.

Bendick和同事們發現地震群與地球轉速的周期性浮動之間存在有趣的聯系。

By examining the historic earthquake record and monitoring those fluctuations, scientists might be able to forecast years when earthquakes are more likely to occur, they suggest.

科學家們表示，通過察看歷史上的地震記錄并監視地球轉速的浮動周期，他們將可以預測地震發生可能性較高的年份。

But that conclusion is by no means set in stone. It hasn't been demonstrated in the lab or confirmed by follow-up studies. Several scientists have said they're not yet convinced by Bendick's research.

但是這一研究結論并沒有得到確證。它還沒有經過實驗室里的實驗驗證，也沒有得到后續研究的證實。許多科學家都表示Bendick的研究成果并不能使他們信服。

Historically, the field of earthquake forecasting has seen some particularly outlandish claims.

歷史上，為了預測地震，人們曾做過許多匪夷所思的嘗試。

People have tried to predict temblors based on the behaviour of animals, gas emissions from rocks, low-frequency electric signals rippling through the Earth - all without much success.

人們曾試圖根據動物的行為，巖石縫隙里泄露的氣體，低頻率的電磁場作用等來預測地震，但最終都未能成功。

For that reason, Bendick said, "it's a little bit scary to get into the game." But getting a prediction right can mean the difference between life and death for countless people. The stakes are too high not to try.

正因如此，Bendick說，“進入這個研究領域會讓人有些惶恐。”但是，做出準確的預測對于數以萬計的人來說是生死攸關的大事。這籌碼太大了，讓人不得不設身其中。

Earth is currently at the end of a slowing period, Bendick pointed out, and the historic record would indicate another "cluster" may be on its way.

地球目前正處于一個轉速減緩的周期末端，Bendick說，根據歷史上的記錄推斷，下一個地震群已經在路上了。

But that doesn't necessarily mean 2024 will be a particularly devastating year. For one thing, the kinds of temblors Bendick analysed happen in areas that are already earthquake-prone - Japan, New Zealand, the west coast of the United States. For people who live in those regions, there is always a risk of a quake, and it is always good to be prepared.

不過這并不意味著2024年會是災難深重的一年。這樣說的原因之一是，Bendick分析預測出的地震群發生的地點都是地震的高頻地帶——日本，新西蘭，美國西海岸。對住在這些地區的人來說，他們總面臨著地震的威脅，有備無患是很必要的。